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Sponsoring Section/Society: WNAR

Session Title: Managing Natural Resources In The Face Of Uncertainty

Session Slot: 8:30-10:20 Wednesday

Estimated Audience Size: xx-xxx

AudioVisual Request: xxx

Theme Session: Yes

Applied Session: Yes

Session Organizer: Kendall, William Patuxent Wildlife Research Center

Address: U. S. Geological Survey, 11510 American Holly Dr., Laurel, MD 20708-4017

Phone: 301/497-5868

Fax: 301/497-5666


Session Timing: 110 minutes total (Sorry about format):

Opening Remarks by Chair - 0 minutes First Speaker - 25 minutes Second Speaker - 25 minutes Third Speaker - 25 minutes Fourth Speaker - 25 minutes (or none) Floor Discusion - 10 minutes

Session Chair: Kendall, William Patuxent Wildlife Research Center

Address: U. S. Geological Survey, 11510 American Holly Dr., Laurel, MD 20708-4017

Phone: 301/497-5868

Fax: 301/497-5666


1. Data, Policy, And The Conservation Of Renewable Natural Resources

Williams, Byron,   U. S. Geological Survey

Address: Cooperative Research Division, U. S. Geological Survey,Biological Resources Division, Reston, VA.

Phone: 703/358-1784

Fax: 703/358-2282


Abstract: The conservation of renewable natural resources involves careful monitoring and assessment, as well as strategic planning and on-the-ground conservation. Ideally, conservation is guided through strategic planning, with planning itself informed by monitoring and assessment. In this scenario data collection and analysis are neither ancillary nor posterior to conservation, but instead lie at the heart of the enterprise, with monitoring and assessment both informing, and being informed by, conservation actions. This delivery framework describes an iterative cycle that potentially leads to improved conservation actions over time. Technical elements of the framework include conservation objectives, potential conservation strategies, system responses to management, measures of risk/benefit, and monitoring programs. Policies for conservation arise from the interplay of these elements, pursuant the identification of optimal or satisficing conservation actions. Conservation and management of renewable natural resources differ from other managed systems in the degree of stochasticity, lack of knowledge about biological processes, limitations in the availabilility of data, and the inability to agree upon goals, objectives, and acceptable management strategies. A number of impediments to rational policy development contribute to these problems, including a lack of long-term institutional commitment, limited fiscal and other resources, lack of understanding of system responses to management, political considerations. Some creative approaches to overcome these limitations are illustrated with examples of waterfowl harvest management, fisheries management, and forest management.

2. Environmental Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Tools, Techniques, And Examples

Lubow, Bruce,   Colorado Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit

Address: Colorado State University, 1912 Bronson Street, Fort Collins, CO 80526

Phone: 970/229-9637

Fax: 970/491-1413


Abstract: The paradigm of Markovian decision analysis provides the framework for making decisions under uncertainty. This paradigm includes optimal dynamic control of deterministic and stochastic systems as well as adaptive learning in imperfectly known systems. These techniques are broadly applicable to diverse fields in engineering, operations research, medicine, biology, and natural resource management. I briefly introduce the requirements for posing problems within this conceptual framework and the advantages and limitation of the approach. Next, I present examples of applications to natural resource management and conservation biology that illustrate the flexibility and broad applicability of the technique. I focus on the practical aspects involved in conducting these analyses and the tools and techniques available to assist in this process. I discuss a software package (SDP/ASDP) that solves a wide range of Markovian optimization problems including stochastic and Bayesian adaptive optimization cases. Finally, I present some statistics that provide insight into the current computational limitations on the methodology and describe current techniques and future directions for addressing this fundamental obstacle.

3. Ecological Variation And The Question Of Scale In Natural Resource Management

Johnson, Fred,   U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Address: Office of Migratory Bird Management 11500 American Holly Dr., Laurel, MD 20708-4016

Phone: 301/497-5861

Fax: 301/497-5871


Abstract: All ecological systems exhibit variability on a broad range of temporal, spatial, and organizational scales as a function ultimately of how individuals respond to their environment. The scale at which individuals are aggregated for management purposes is an arbitrary decision, but one that can strongly influence both the benefits and costs of management. Management systems defined at scales that result in relatively low ecological variation will produce relatively high benefits, but also are characterized by high monitoring and assessment costs. Determining the optimal scale for management depends critically on the availability of explicit performance criteria and on descriptions of relevant ecological patterns. The description of ecological patterns, in turn, involves the use of data to explore variation as a function of scale and to elucidate underlying causal mechanisms. I illustrate these concepts of variation and scale using the management of waterfowl harvests in the United States as an example. I discuss the gradual change of management scale from one of high heterogeneity to one of lower heterogeneity, and provide some thoughts about the increase in net benefit that might be expected.

4. Data And Wildlife Management In Missouri

Sheriff, Steven,   Missouri Department of Conservation

Address: 1110 S College Ave., Columbia, Missouri 65201

Phone: 573/882-9880

Fax: (573)882-4517


Abstract: In the United States, individual states are responsible for the management of wildlife resources within their borders. Each state has an agency that is responsible for the management, protection and welfare of their wildlife resources. Citizens are allowed to use these resources in a number of ways including aesthetic viewing, hunting, and general sense of natural well-being. To manage their wildlife resources, state agencies use a wide-varity of data in the decision process. For this presentation, I will focus on methods of data collection and types of data that the Missouri Department of Conservation uses in managing our wildlife resources. Examples that will be highlighted include a large scale experiment that is examining the impacts of forest management on components of the forest ecosystem, radio-telemetry studies of wild turkey population dynamics, and attitude surveys of public and hunter constituency groups. How these data are incorporated into the decision process will also be addressed.

List of speakers who are nonmembers: None

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Next: Institute of Mathematical Statistics Up: Biometric Society (ENAR & Previous: biometric.soc.11
David Scott