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Sponsoring Section/Society: ASA Business & Economics, ASA Health Policy Statistics, and ASA Committee on National & International Security

Session Slot: 2:00- 3:50 Tuesday

Estimated Audience Size: 75-125

AudioVisual Request: any?


Session Title: Assessment of Drug Interdiction Activities

Theme Session: Yes

Applied Session: Yes


Session Organizer: Fries, Arthur Institute for Defense Analyses


Address: IDA, 1801 N. Beauregard St., Alexandria, VA 22311

Phone: (703) 845-2364

Fax: (703) 845-2274

Email: afries@ida.org


Session Timing: 110 minutes total (Sorry about format):

4 speakers Opening Remarks by Chair - 3 minutes First Speaker - 25 minutes Second Speaker - 25 minutes Third Speaker - 25 minutes Fourth Speaker - 25 minutes Floor Discussion - 7 minutes


Session Chair: Spruill, Nancy Office of the Secretary of Defense


Address: Deputy Director, Acquisition Resources Room 1E474 Pentagon, Washington, DC 20310

Phone: (703) 693-2982

Fax: (703) 695-2086

Email: spruilnl@acq.osd.mil


1. NRC Study-Information and Research for Drug Abuse Policy

Thomas, Yonette,   National Research Council


Address: Committee on Law and Justice HA156L National Research Council 2101 Constitution Ave. NW Washington DC 20418

Phone: (202) 334-1702

Fax: (202) 334-3829

Email: ythomas@nas.edu

Abstract: The National Research Council has begun a 30-month study entitled: ``Data and Research for Policy on Illegal Drugs,'' sponsored by the Office of National Drug Control Policy. The study will focus on resolving conflicts among existing cost-effectiveness studies that cut across interdiction, enforcement, treatment, and on specifying the data and research required for improved policy studies to assess the effectiveness of various drug control strategies. The study is expected to identify information that can stimulate the development of both new data collection systems and advanced models that can respond to changing policy analysis needs. This talk will describe the study committee's task and provide an update on the study efforts to date.


2. The Need for More Drug War Statistics

Fries, Arthur,   Institute for Defense Analyses


Address: IDA, 1801 N. Beauregard St., Alexandria, VA 22311

Phone: (703) 845-2364

Fax: (703) 845-2274

Email: afries@ida.org

Charles, Robert, House Subcommittee on National Security, International Affairs and Criminal Justice

Abstract: We will address: (1) the rising importance of interdiction in the context of US Drug Policy, as increasingly framed by Congress and the Executive (in historical context); (2) the promise of simultaneously marrying stronger intelligence with a more robust maritime, border and source country interdiction effort; and (3) the need for accurate data collection in order to both make interdiction more effective and assure greater overall accountability.


3. Models Versus Data

Rivolo, Rex,   Institute for Defense Analyses


Address: IDA, 1801 N. Beauregard St., Alexandria, VA 22311

Phone: (703) 845-6760

Fax: (703) 845-2274

Email: arivolo@ida.org

Abstract: We provide a historical outline of research in the field of illegal drug use, treatment, and prevention, with a focus on recent published reports that have played major roles in the development of national and international drug interdiction policies. Reported results and conclusions from this body of research are shown to suffer from fundamental analysis flaws and to be inconsistent with empirical evidence. In particular, specifications of predetermined models appear to dominate over straightforward data presentations and summaries.


4. Variation in the Optimal Mix of Drug Control Interventions over the Course of a Drug Epidemic

Caulkins, Jonathan,   Carnegie Mellon University


Address: Carnegie Mellon University, The Heinz School of Public Policy and Management, Pittsburgh PA 15213

Phone: (412) 268-3840

Fax: (412) 268-7036

Email: caulkins+@andrew.cmu.edu

Feichtinger, Gustav, Vienna University of Technology

Tragler, Gernot, Vienna University of Technology

Behrens, Doris, Vienna University of Technology

Haunschmied, Josef, Vienna University of Technology

Abstract: There is considerable interest in what the optimal mix of drug control interventions is, but to date most work has not explicitly acknowledged the epidemic character of waves of drug use or the possibility that the optimal mix of interventions should change over time. This paper applies optimal control theory to some very simple models of drug epidemics to produce insights into this important policy problem.

List of speakers who are nonmembers: Thomas, Rivolo, Caulkins


next up previous index
Next: asa.business.03 Up: ASA Business and Economic Previous: asa.business.01
David Scott
6/1/1998