Fall 2000
Mathematical Biology Seminar
Seminars at UH meet from 1:30 to 2:30 in room 646,
Phillip Guthrie Hoffman Building.
Seminars at Rice meet from 1:30 to 2:30 in Duncan Hall 1044.
Exceptions are noted in schedule below.
Parking at UH is available in the paid parking garage underneath
University Hilton Hotel and Hotel School, Entrance 1 off Calhoun.
Parking tokens will be provided by the Math Department.
Parking at Rice is available in visitor spots in Lot C (Abercrombie lot), Entrance 16 from Rice Blvd.
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20 October at Rice
Olga Gorlov,
Modeling of Long-Term Screening for Lung Cancer
ABSTRACT: Results of the Mayo Lung Project (MLP), a randomized clinical trial for early
detection of lung cancer, were interpreted as a demonstration that early
detection of lung cancer by chest X-ray does not reduce mortality from this
disease. Recently, Marcus et al. (2000) analyzed extended follow-up data
from the MLP subjects and found that after about 20 years there was still
no difference in mortality from lung cancer between study and control groups.
To put this result into context, we ran the simulation model of MLP
published by Flehinger et al. (1992), with parameter values that were
estimated at that time (1992) based on the data collected by the MLP. The
model produces predictions of the extended follow-up statistics, which are
consistent with the data published by Marcus et al. (2000). This provides a
long-term validation for the model.
On the other hand, the same model demonstrates that had the study
subject been screened annually for the extended follow-up period, the
difference in mortality would be noticeable, even with low sensitivity of
chest X-ray detection.
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