Assessing Risk and Fairness:
    The Role of Statistical Science in Policy

                  David W Scott
                 Dept Statistics
                 Rice University

Abstract

Probability theory provides a mathematical framework
for modeling risk.  Philosophy considers fundamental
questions of the nature and meaning of chance.  But it
falls upon statistical science to collect and analyze
data to estimate risk, influence policy, and make
decisions.  Insurance provides a compelling case study
for notions of fairness and subsidy.  This talk will
examine the notion of a fair game and consider its
application in areas including decision making, social
security, medical insurance, and exit polling.  What
are some of the elements of ``fair'' policies?  A deeper
understanding of statistical modeling and evaluation
would illuminate subsidies implicit in public policy
and would sharpen political debate.