\relax \ifx\hyper@anchor\@undefined \global \let \oldcontentsline\contentsline \gdef \contentsline#1#2#3#4{\oldcontentsline{#1}{#2}{#3}} \global \let \oldnewlabel\newlabel \gdef \newlabel#1#2{\newlabelxx{#1}#2} \gdef \newlabelxx#1#2#3#4#5#6{\oldnewlabel{#1}{{#2}{#3}}} \AtEndDocument{\let \contentsline\oldcontentsline \let \newlabel\oldnewlabel} \else \global \let \hyper@last\relax \fi \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {begintocitem}{}{}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {jobname}{Doksum}{}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {doi}{0003/0000.0000}{}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {arxiv}{math.PR/0000003}{}{}} \gdef\hy@title{Semiparametric Models and Likelihood - The Power of Ranks} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {title}{Semiparametric Models and Likelihood - The Power of Ranks}{66}{}} \thanksnewlabel{e1@email}{{doksum@stat.wisc.edu}{66}} \thanksnewlabel{e2@email}{{}{66}} \thanksnewlabel{a1thanks}{{1}{66}} \thanksnewlabel{t1thanks}{{\ensuremath {*}}{66}} \thanksnewlabel{a2thanks}{{2}{66}} \@writefile{idx}{\indexentry {K. Doksum, \textit {University of Wisconsin, Madison}}{}} \@writefile{idx}{\indexentry {A. Ozeki, \textit {University of Wisconsin, Madison}}{}} \gdef\hy@author{Kjell Doksum and Akichika Ozeki} \gdef\hy@subject{IMS Collections 2009 Vol. 0 66--92} \gdef\hy@keywords{62G05, 62G20, 62N02, Lehmann model, proportional hazard model, profile NP likelihood, nonparametric maximum likelihood, MM algorithm, copula models, Box-Cox models, } \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {author}{Kjell Doksum and Akichika Ozeki}{67}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {endtocitem}{}{}{}} \gdef\author@num{2} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {1}Introduction}{67}{section.1}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {1.1}Lehmann Type Models. Cox Regression}{67}{subsection.1.1}} \newlabel{eq1.1}{{1.1}{67}{Lehmann Type Models. Cox Regression\relax }{equation.1.1}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {1.2}Sklar Type Models. Copula Regression}{67}{subsection.1.2}} \newlabel{eq1.2}{{1.2}{68}{Sklar Type Models. Copula Regression\relax }{equation.1.2}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {2}Proportional Hazard and Proportional Expected Hazard Rate Models}{68}{section.2}} \newlabel{eq2.1}{{2.1}{68}{Proportional Hazard and Proportional Expected Hazard Rate Models\relax }{equation.2.1}{}} \newlabel{eq2.2}{{2.2}{68}{Proportional Hazard and Proportional Expected Hazard Rate Models\relax }{equation.2.2}{}} \newlabel{LEHMANN_MODEL}{{2.3}{68}{Proportional Hazard and Proportional Expected Hazard Rate Models\relax }{equation.2.3}{}} \newlabel{HR_COX}{{2.5}{69}{Proportional Hazard and Proportional Expected Hazard Rate Models\relax }{equation.2.5}{}} \newlabel{SINAMI_PLUS}{{2.6}{69}{Proportional Hazard and Proportional Expected Hazard Rate Models\relax }{equation.2.6}{}} \newlabel{SINAMI_MINUS}{{2.7}{69}{Proportional Hazard and Proportional Expected Hazard Rate Models\relax }{equation.2.7}{}} \newlabel{SINAMI}{{2.8}{69}{Proportional Hazard and Proportional Expected Hazard Rate Models\relax }{equation.2.8}{}} \newlabel{SINAMI0}{{2.8}{69}{Proportional Hazard and Proportional Expected Hazard Rate Models\relax }{equation.2.8}{}} \newlabel{FRAILTY}{{2.11}{69}{Proportional Hazard and Proportional Expected Hazard Rate Models\relax }{equation.2.11}{}} \newlabel{SINAMI_HR}{{2.12}{70}{Proportional Hazard and Proportional Expected Hazard Rate Models\relax }{equation.2.12}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {3}Rank, Partial and Marginal Likelihood}{70}{section.3}} \newlabel{SEC_RANK}{{3}{70}{Rank, Partial and Marginal Likelihood\relax }{section.3}{}} \@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {1}{\ignorespaces \noindent SINAMI and PEHR hazard ratios for $\theta = -3, -1.5, 1.5, 3$.}}{71}{figure.1}} \newlabel{FIG_HAZRATIO}{{1}{71}{ \label {FIG_HAZRATIO}\noindent SINAMI and PEHR hazard ratios for $\theta = -3, -1.5, 1.5, 3$}{figure.1}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {4}Profile NP Likelihood}{72}{section.4}} \newlabel{}{{4.1}{72}{Profile NP Likelihood\relax }{}{}} \newlabel{}{{4.1}{72}{Profile NP Likelihood\relax }{}{}} \newlabel{eq_PROLIK1}{{4.1}{72}{Profile NP Likelihood\relax }{equation.4.1}{}} \newlabel{eq_PROLIK2}{{4.2}{72}{Profile NP Likelihood\relax }{equation.4.2}{}} \newlabel{eq_PROLIK3}{{4.3}{73}{Profile NP Likelihood\relax }{equation.4.3}{}} \newlabel{eq_LM_NP}{{4.4}{73}{Profile NP Likelihood\relax }{}{}} \newlabel{BRESLOW_EQ}{{4.4}{73}{Profile NP Likelihood\relax }{equation.4.4}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {5}Profile NP Likelihood for the PEHR Model}{73}{section.5}} \newlabel{eq_PEHR_PR1}{{5.1}{73}{Profile NP Likelihood for the PEHR Model\relax }{equation.5.1}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {5.1}The MM Algorithm}{74}{subsection.5.1}} \newlabel{SUR1}{{5.2}{74}{The MM Algorithm\relax }{equation.5.2}{}} \newlabel{SUR2}{{5.3}{74}{The MM Algorithm\relax }{equation.5.3}{}} \newlabel{B_A}{{5.4}{74}{The MM Algorithm\relax }{equation.5.4}{}} \newlabel{UPDATE1}{{5.5}{74}{The MM Algorithm\relax }{equation.5.5}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {5.2}The MM Algorithm for the PEHR Model with $\theta \geq 0$ (SINAMI with $\theta \geq 0$)}{74}{subsection.5.2}} \newlabel{SEC_MM_PLUS}{{5.2}{74}{The MM Algorithm for the PEHR Model with $\theta \geq 0$ (SINAMI with $\theta \geq 0$)\relax }{subsection.5.2}{}} \newlabel{LOGLIK1}{{5.6}{74}{The MM Algorithm for the PEHR Model with $\theta \geq 0$ (SINAMI with $\theta \geq 0$)\relax }{equation.5.6}{}} \newlabel{B_org}{{5.7}{74}{The MM Algorithm for the PEHR Model with $\theta \geq 0$ (SINAMI with $\theta \geq 0$)\relax }{equation.5.7}{}} \newlabel{A_org}{{5.8}{74}{The MM Algorithm for the PEHR Model with $\theta \geq 0$ (SINAMI with $\theta \geq 0$)\relax }{equation.5.8}{}} \newlabel{B_h1}{{5.9}{75}{The MM Algorithm for the PEHR Model with $\theta \geq 0$ (SINAMI with $\theta \geq 0$)\relax }{equation.5.9}{}} \newlabel{A_h1}{{5.10}{75}{The MM Algorithm for the PEHR Model with $\theta \geq 0$ (SINAMI with $\theta \geq 0$)\relax }{equation.5.10}{}} \newlabel{MM_MAIN}{{5.11}{75}{The MM Algorithm for the PEHR Model with $\theta \geq 0$ (SINAMI with $\theta \geq 0$)\relax }{equation.5.11}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {5.3}The MM Algorithm for the SINAMI Model with $\theta \leq 0$}{75}{subsection.5.3}} \newlabel{SEC_THETA_NEG}{{5.3}{75}{The MM Algorithm for the SINAMI Model with $\theta \leq 0$\relax }{subsection.5.3}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {5.4}The MM Algorithm for the SINAMI Model with $\theta \in R$}{75}{subsection.5.4}} \newlabel{SEC_THETA_BOTH}{{5.4}{75}{The MM Algorithm for the SINAMI Model with $\theta \in R$\relax }{subsection.5.4}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {5.5}Profile NPMLE Implementation}{75}{subsection.5.5}} \newlabel{}{{5.12}{75}{Profile NPMLE Implementation\relax }{equation.5.12}{}} \newlabel{EQ6.20}{{5.13}{75}{Profile NPMLE Implementation\relax }{equation.5.13}{}} \newlabel{SINAMI_PDF}{{5.14}{76}{Profile NPMLE Implementation\relax }{equation.5.14}{}} \newlabel{SINAMI_ALG}{{5.15}{76}{Profile NPMLE Implementation\relax }{}{}} \newlabel{SINAMI_ALG1}{{5.15}{76}{Profile NPMLE Implementation\relax }{equation.5.15}{}} \newlabel{F_H}{{5.16}{76}{Profile NPMLE Implementation\relax }{equation.5.16}{}} \newlabel{SINAMI_ALG}{{5.18}{76}{Profile NPMLE Implementation\relax }{equation.5.18}{}} \newlabel{eq_R5.3}{{5.21}{77}{Profile NPMLE Implementation\relax }{equation.5.21}{}} \newlabel{eq_R5.3}{{5.22}{77}{Profile NPMLE Implementation\relax }{equation.5.22}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {5.6}Estimation of the Variance of the Profile NPMLE}{77}{subsection.5.6}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {6}Simulation Results}{77}{section.6}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {6.1}PEHR Model Estimates}{77}{subsection.6.1}} \@writefile{lot}{\contentsline {table}{\numberline {1}{\ignorespaces mysmallcaption}}{78}{table.1}} \newlabel{SINAMI_TB1}{{1}{78}{mysmallcaption\relax }{table.1}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {6.2}Model Fit for Misspecified Model}{78}{subsection.6.2}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {7}Estimation in the Normal Copula Model}{78}{section.7}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {7.1}The One Covariate Case}{78}{subsection.7.1}} \@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {2}{\ignorespaces \noindent Cox and PEHR estimated hazard ratio when $F_0 \sim EXP(1)$ and $F \sim $ Gamma or Weibull.}}{79}{figure.2}} \newlabel{FIG_2outside}{{2}{79}{ \label {FIG_2outside}\noindent Cox and PEHR estimated hazard ratio when $F_0 \sim EXP(1)$ and $F \sim $ Gamma or Weibull}{figure.2}{}} \newlabel{COPULA01}{{7.1}{79}{The One Covariate Case\relax }{}{}} \newlabel{COPU_L1}{{7.2}{80}{The One Covariate Case\relax }{equation.7.2}{}} \newlabel{remark7.1eq}{{7.3}{80}{The One Covariate Case\relax }{equation.7.3}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {7.2}The Multivariate Covariate Case}{81}{subsection.7.2}} \newlabel{SEC_MCOV}{{7.2}{81}{The Multivariate Covariate Case\relax }{subsection.7.2}{}} \newlabel{EQ_Y_COPULA}{{7.4}{81}{The Multivariate Covariate Case\relax }{equation.7.4}{}} \newlabel{EQ_X_COPULA}{{7.5}{81}{The Multivariate Covariate Case\relax }{equation.7.5}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{\numberline {8}Transformation and NP Models}{81}{section.8}} \newlabel{EQ8.1}{{8.1}{81}{Transformation and NP Models\relax }{equation.8.1}{}} \newlabel{EQ8.2}{{8.2}{81}{Transformation and NP Models\relax }{equation.8.2}{}} \newlabel{EQ8.3NEW}{{8.3}{82}{Transformation and NP Models\relax }{equation.8.3}{}} \newlabel{EQ8.3}{{8.4}{82}{Transformation and NP Models\relax }{equation.8.4}{}} \@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {3}{\ignorespaces \noindent $\mathaccentV {hat}05E{\rho }$ boxplots for correctly specified model (\ref {eq_sim1}) with n=128. Top 5: $\lambda _1 = \lambda _2=0.5$. Bottom 5: $\lambda _1 = \lambda _2=1$. The horizontal line gives the true value of $\rho $.}}{83}{figure.3}} \newlabel{FIG_rho}{{3}{83}{ \label {FIG_rho}\noindent $\hat {\rho }$ boxplots for correctly specified model (\ref {eq_sim1}) with n=128. Top 5: $\lambda _1 = \lambda _2=0.5$. Bottom 5: $\lambda _1 = \lambda _2=1$. The horizontal line gives the true value of $\rho $}{figure.3}{}} \newlabel{EQ_ALPHA_LSE}{{8.5}{83}{Transformation and NP Models\relax }{equation.8.5}{}} \newlabel{NONPARA1}{{8.6}{83}{Transformation and NP Models\relax }{equation.8.6}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsection}{\numberline {8.1}Simulation Results}{84}{subsection.8.1}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {8.1.1}Correctly Specified Model}{84}{subsubsection.8.1.1}} \newlabel{eq_sim1}{{8.7}{84}{Correctly Specified Model\relax }{equation.8.7}{}} \newlabel{eq_F1F2}{{8.8}{84}{Correctly Specified Model\relax }{equation.8.8}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {subsubsection}{\numberline {8.1.2}Misspecified Model}{84}{subsubsection.8.1.2}} \newlabel{eq_sim2}{{8.9}{84}{Misspecified Model\relax }{equation.8.9}{}} \newlabel{EQ8.4}{{8.12}{84}{Misspecified Model\relax }{equation.8.12}{}} \@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {4}{\ignorespaces \noindent Boxplots of the three estimates of median regression m(x) for model (\ref {eq_sim2}) with ($\lambda _1, \lambda _2,\alpha _1, \sigma ^2$)=(1, 1, 0.5, 0.5). I: profile MLE, II: normal scores, and III: NP, spline. The true value of m(x) is the solid line.}}{86}{figure.4}} \newlabel{FIG_L1_a1n0.5_var0.5}{{4}{86}{ \label {FIG_L1_a1n0.5_var0.5} \noindent Boxplots of the three estimates of median regression m(x) for model (\ref {eq_sim2}) with ($\lambda _1, \lambda _2,\alpha _1, \sigma ^2$)=(1, 1, 0.5, 0.5). I: profile MLE, II: normal scores, and III: NP, spline. The true value of m(x) is the solid line}{figure.4}{}} \@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {5}{\ignorespaces \noindent Boxplots of the three estimates of median regression m(x) for model (\ref {eq_sim2}) with ($\lambda _1, \lambda _2,\alpha _1, \sigma ^2$)=(1, 1, 0.5, 1). I: profile MLE, II: normal scores, and III: NP, spline. The true value of m(x) is the solid line.}}{87}{figure.5}} \newlabel{FIG_L1_a1n0.5_var1}{{5}{87}{ \label {FIG_L1_a1n0.5_var1}\noindent Boxplots of the three estimates of median regression m(x) for model (\ref {eq_sim2}) with ($\lambda _1, \lambda _2,\alpha _1, \sigma ^2$)=(1, 1, 0.5, 1). I: profile MLE, II: normal scores, and III: NP, spline. The true value of m(x) is the solid line}{figure.5}{}} \@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {6}{\ignorespaces \noindent Boxplots of the three estimates of median regression m(x) for model (\ref {eq_sim2}) with ($\lambda _1, \lambda _2,\alpha _1, \sigma ^2$)=(0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5). I: profile MLE, II: normal scores, and III: NP, spline. The true value of m(x) is the solid line.}}{88}{figure.6}} \newlabel{FIG_L0.5_a1n0.5_var0.5}{{6}{88}{ \label {FIG_L0.5_a1n0.5_var0.5}\noindent Boxplots of the three estimates of median regression m(x) for model (\ref {eq_sim2}) with ($\lambda _1, \lambda _2,\alpha _1, \sigma ^2$)=(0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5). I: profile MLE, II: normal scores, and III: NP, spline. The true value of m(x) is the solid line}{figure.6}{}} \@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {7}{\ignorespaces \noindent Boxplots of the three estimates of median regression m(x) for model (\ref {eq_sim2}) with ($\lambda _1, \lambda _2,\alpha _1, \sigma ^2$)=(0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 1). I: profile MLE, II: normal scores, and III: NP, spline. The true value of m(x) is the solid line.}}{89}{figure.7}} \newlabel{FIG_L0.5_a1n0.5_var1}{{7}{89}{ \label {FIG_L0.5_a1n0.5_var1}\noindent Boxplots of the three estimates of median regression m(x) for model (\ref {eq_sim2}) with ($\lambda _1, \lambda _2,\alpha _1, \sigma ^2$)=(0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 1). I: profile MLE, II: normal scores, and III: NP, spline. The true value of m(x) is the solid line}{figure.7}{}} \@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {8}{\ignorespaces \noindent MSE of the three estimates of m(x) as a function of the misspecification parameter $\gamma $ for ($\lambda _1, \lambda _2,\alpha _1, \sigma ^2$)=(1, 1, 0.5, 0.5). $\bigcirc = I$, $\bigtriangleup = II$, $+ = III$.}}{90}{figure.8}} \newlabel{FIG_3MSE}{{8}{90}{ \label {FIG_3MSE}\noindent MSE of the three estimates of m(x) as a function of the misspecification parameter $\gamma $ for ($\lambda _1, \lambda _2,\alpha _1, \sigma ^2$)=(1, 1, 0.5, 0.5). $\bigcirc = I$, $\bigtriangleup = II$, $+ = III$}{figure.8}{}} \@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {9}{\ignorespaces \noindent MSE of the three estimates of m(x) as a function of the misspecification parameter $\gamma $ for ($\lambda _1, \lambda _2,\alpha _1, \sigma ^2$)=(1, 1, 0.5, 1). $\bigcirc = I$, $\bigtriangleup = II$, $+ = III$.}}{90}{figure.9}} \newlabel{FIG_4MSE}{{9}{90}{ \label {FIG_4MSE}\noindent MSE of the three estimates of m(x) as a function of the misspecification parameter $\gamma $ for ($\lambda _1, \lambda _2,\alpha _1, \sigma ^2$)=(1, 1, 0.5, 1). $\bigcirc = I$, $\bigtriangleup = II$, $+ = III$}{figure.9}{}} \@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {10}{\ignorespaces \noindent MSE of the three estimates of m(x) as a function of the misspecification parameter $\gamma $ for ($\lambda _1, \lambda _2,\alpha _1, \sigma ^2$)=(0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5). $\bigcirc = I$, $\bigtriangleup = II$, $+ = III$.}}{90}{figure.10}} \newlabel{FIG_3MSE}{{10}{90}{ \label {FIG_3MSE}\noindent MSE of the three estimates of m(x) as a function of the misspecification parameter $\gamma $ for ($\lambda _1, \lambda _2,\alpha _1, \sigma ^2$)=(0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 0.5). $\bigcirc = I$, $\bigtriangleup = II$, $+ = III$}{figure.10}{}} \bibcite{r1}{{1}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r2}{{2}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r3}{{3}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r4}{{4}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r5}{{5}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r6}{{6}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r7}{{7}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r8}{{8}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r9}{{9}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r10}{{10}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r11}{{11}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r12}{{12}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r13}{{13}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r14}{{14}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r15}{{15}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r16}{{16}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r17}{{17}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r18}{{18}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r19}{{19}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r20}{{20}{}{{}}{{}}} \@writefile{lof}{\contentsline {figure}{\numberline {11}{\ignorespaces \noindent MSE of the three estimates of m(x) as a function of the misspecification parameter $\gamma $ for ($\lambda _1, \lambda _2,\alpha _1, \sigma ^2$)=(0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 1). $\bigcirc = I$, $\bigtriangleup = II$, $+ = III$.}}{91}{figure.11}} \newlabel{FIG_4MSE}{{11}{91}{ \label {FIG_4MSE}\noindent MSE of the three estimates of m(x) as a function of the misspecification parameter $\gamma $ for ($\lambda _1, \lambda _2,\alpha _1, \sigma ^2$)=(0.5, 0.5, 0.5, 1). $\bigcirc = I$, $\bigtriangleup = II$, $+ = III$}{figure.11}{}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{Acknowledgements}{91}{section*.3}} \@writefile{toc}{\contentsline {section}{References}{91}{section*.5}} \bibcite{r21}{{21}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r22}{{22}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r23}{{23}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r24}{{24}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r25}{{25}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r26}{{26}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r27}{{27}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r28}{{28}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r29}{{29}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r30}{{30}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r31}{{31}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r32}{{32}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r33}{{33}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r34}{{34}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r35}{{35}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r36}{{36}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r37}{{37}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r38}{{38}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r39}{{39}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r40}{{40}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r41}{{41}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r42}{{42}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r43}{{43}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r44}{{44}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r45}{{45}{}{{}}{{}}} \bibcite{r46}{{46}{}{{}}{{}}} \global\NAT@numberstrue