next up previous index
Next: ASA Statistical Computing (5 Up: ASA Social Statistics (3) Previous:

Sponsoring Section/Society: ASA-SOC

Session Slot: 8:30-10:20 Monday

Estimated Audience Size: xx-xxx

AudioVisual Request: xxx

Session Title: Public Policy Using Statistcs

Theme Session: Yes

Applied Session: Yes

Session Organizer: Morton, Sally C. RAND Corporation

Address: P. O. Box 2138, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138

Phone: 310/393-0411, X7360

Fax: 310/451-7025


Session Organizer: Rolph, John E. University of Southern California

Address: Information and Operations Management Dept., Marshall School of Business, Los Angeles, CA 90089-1421

Phone: 213/740-4829

Fax: 213/740-7313


Session Timing: 110 minutes total (Sorry about format):

Opening Remarks by Chair - 5 minutes First Speaker - 25 minutes Second Speaker - 25 minutes Third Speaker - 25 minutes Discussant - 20 minutes (or none) Floor Discusion - 20 minutes

Session Chair: Morton, Sally C. RAND

Address: P. O. Box 2138, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138, X7360

Phone: 310/393-0411, X7360

Fax: 310/451-7025


1. Is there Periodicity in the Global Mean Temperature Series?

Adams, John L.,   RAND

Address: P. O. Box 2138, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138

Phone: 310/393-0411, X7917

Fax: 310/451-7025


Hammitt, James K., Harvard

Hodges, James S., University of Minnesota

Abstract: Periodic fluctuations in global temeratures have drawn interest because of their role in detection and attribution (to natural or anthropogenic sources) of climatic trends. Oscilations with various periods have been reported in the literature. The 2-7 year periodicities have been associated with the EL Nino/Southern Oscillation, but the sources of the "bidecadal" (16-22 year) and longer periodicities are more speculative; possible changes in solar radiance have been suggested. A weakness of earlier research has been the inability to quantify the statistical significance of putative periodicities. We use a non-parametric bootstrap to assess the significance of apparent ENSO-related and bidecadal oscillations in global and hemispheric land and sea temerature series. Our analysis supports the existence of cycles with periods consistent with ENSO but we cannot distinguish the apparent bidecadal oscillations from random variation with data series of the length available.

2. Surveying Individuals with Disabilities

Sampson, Allan R.,   University of Pittsburgh

Address: Dept. of Statistics, 512 Thackeray Hall Pittsburgh, PA 15260

Phone: 412/624-8372

Fax: 412/361-6042


Abstract: National and local disability programs require accurate and relevant statistics concerning people with disabilities. These data are needed for program advocacy, and implementing and monitoring of new and existing programs. This talk begins with a brief history of disability surveys and a discussion of current frameworks for conceptualizing disability. Issues and problems concerning disability surveys are then examined including reliability, multistage sampling, rare populations, self- identification, and effects of factors that vary over time and environment.

3. Challenges in Designing and Analyzing Social Experiments

Bell, Robert M.,   RAND

Address: P.O. Box 2138, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138

Phone: 310/393-0411, X6672

Fax: 310/451-7025


Ellickson, Phyllis L., RAND

Abstract: Many important public-policy decisions rely on evaluating the effectiveness of social interventions. For example, preventing drug use by adolescents is an important public health and criminal justice priority. One promising approach is school-based prevention programs, which provide a convenient way of reaching almost all adolescents. To choose successfully from among the multitude of available programs, schools need hard evidence about which, if any, prevention strategies work.

However, such evaluations pose substantial statistical challenges not faced by clinical trials in trying to achieve external and internal validity. This paper describes the design and analysis strategies adopted in a longitudinal experiment conducted at 30 junior high schools in California and Oregon to evaluate a school-based drug prevention program called Project ALERT. The experiment assessed whether the curriculum reduced initiation and regular use of alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana by adolescents?

The paper discusses steps that we took to address the following challenges: achieving full, but realistic implementation of the curriculum; testing the program in diverse environments; obtaining well-matched experimental cells; obtaining reliable measures of use; adjusting for baseline differences among experimental groups; and accounting for intra-school correlation of outcomes.

Discussant: Mosteller, Frederick   Harvard University

Address: Harvard Univ Science Center 1 Oxford St. Rm 604 Cambridge, MA 02138-2901

Phone: 617-495-2583

Fax: 617-496-8057

Email: NA

List of speakers who are nonmembers: None

next up previous index
Next: ASA Statistical Computing (5 Up: ASA Social Statistics (3) Previous:
David Scott